In this post we dive deeper into the statistics around electric two wheelers in Australia.
I'll continuously update this post as time goes by so make sure you subscribe to get notified of updates which will come on a regular basis.
As a reminder, the data source we are using is based on registration data to the end of 2022 and in some cases is quite vague with respect to models, but we're getting better insights all the time. There is a large chunk of "Unknown" brands and models which I have notionally spread over the last 5 years. There are undoubtedly a number of unregistered (or unrecorded) two wheelers representing conversions, home built, off road, demonstrator and trade plate registered vehicles, which are not represented in our data.
The registrations are assumed to be current and valid in 2022, hence it provides an indication of both new sales (registrations of a given year model) and historical registrations that remain valid in 2022.
This table shows the annual and total registrations by primary brand and includes simple cumulative and growth estimates.
By Brand and Model
Where known, we have mapped the registrations by year, brand and model here.
Registrations by class
I have notionally classified all vehicles in to Low, Medium or Performance classes as a loose indication of popularity of the various power classes. Please note that as Peak Kw changes over the years and models I have used an average of the published model peak power rating, although there are obviously some significant variations in each model range.
Low = <5kW peak power
Medium = 5-20kW peak power
Performance = >20kW
I have notionally classified all brands by an average sale price based on published prices. Once again, there is a known wide range of pricing, significant changes over time and discounts which are not reflected so this should be considered very indicative.
Estimated sales value starts to reveal some interesting trends and high level statistics.
For example, I think it's reasonable to estimate that total annual sales were in the vicinity of $12Million AUD in 2022.
The complete data shows shows this as a decline on 2021 however, this should be taken with a grain of salt because from 2018 to 2021 a substantial quantity of Kyburz three wheelers are included and are a single fleet sale to Australia Post and were premium priced including fleet services from what I can determine.
Underlying this there is a reasonable growth rate which broadly represents the wider consumer market.
Once again based on averages, and excluding model variations and degradation as a purely indicative number we can now estimate that around 33MWh of electric two wheelers make up the Australian fleet and around 0.5MWh to 1MWh is added each year.
Comparatively, the stationary, residential solar energy storage market now includes an estimated 2,500MWhs of cumulative installed capacity and adds around 150MWh more each year.
Of course, the vast majority of electric two wheelers are deliberately small capacity but I raise the issue because Vehicle to Load is a hot topic and it is therefore noteworthy that even in our niche we represent a growing additional potential capacity - and load.
As a somewhat ridiculous but easy to digest indication, 33MWh represents enough total energy to run an average Australian home 24 hours per day for almost 4 years continuously. You'd need a hell of a driveway to park all 6,561 two wheelers and a lot of power boards, but you get my drift.